Edge Updates
Dated Brent Report – Any Last Sellers?
September has been a month of many firsts in Brent futures: for one, the benchmark crude futures contract collapsed below $70/bbl on 10 Sep for the first time in three years. Soon after this feat, ICE COT data for the week ending 10 Sep reported that players were net short the Brent futures complex for the first time on record. Despite this weakness, Dated Brent and Dated differentials were shielded from the bears, with the physical differential briefly dropping to just above $0.99/bbl on 09 Sep to then rising to $1.275/bbl on 16 Sep. This relative support emerged due to strong buy-side forces present in the market. On 06 Sep, we saw Chevron offering WTI Midland across the curve, only for Totsa to lift the offer. Afterwards, we saw Gunvor and Petroineos buying Ekofisk and Midland cargoes, respectively, with BP and Glencore on the sell side.
Dated Brent Report – When The Party’s Over
For all the market chatter about a disappointing summer for crude oil (flat price) and refined products, Dated Brent certainly did not get the memo.
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Dubai Market Report – Light Sweet Sell-offs
Light crude, not-so-light selling. That has been the spotlight in Brent/Dubai over the past week, with the Oct’24 contract descending from over $1/bbl at the end of August to $0.50/bbl on 10 Sep (at the time of writing).
Dubai Market Report – Everything Has Changed
It was a paradigm shift in the Brent/Dubai crude market as the orderly downtrend in Brent/Dubai gave way to a mighty rally on 26 August following Brent's rally on the Libyan supply disruption news. The Sep'24 Brent/Dubai widened from $0.30/bbl to highs of $0.90/bbl. Nonetheless, the complex is entering September pricing on a strong note, with the Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box suppressed below -$0.30/bbl. In contrast, outright prices in the deferred have returned to previous highs above $1/bbl.
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