The Officials

This market is booming! Hope you weren’t caught short, as Brent bounces towards $64, reaching a post-window high since 8 December. Prompt spread rallied too trading above 60c! Speaking of crude, have a look at ADNOC OSPs in the details!

Crude is still cheap and that means just one thing… China is hungry! February Saudi allocations totalled 49 mil bbl, quite steady from the January set but a big boost from February 2025 – up 5.5 mil bbl, in fact.

Market is bullish folks, no easy oil from Venezuela. There was a bullish scent in the air today as Brent built itself up steadily until lunchtime, exceeding $61 by 13:30 GMT. An impressive recovery, having dipped just below 60 bucks following the Asian close this morning. By the European close, it had climbed to $61.11/bbl. The prompt spread was even more volatile, climbing from 40c to a healthy 50c – the strongest it’s been this year – and reaching the close at 48c.

Traders asked The Officials what had triggered the move in Dated/Dubai, as the prompt spread dropped from $1.59 to just $1.21. The Peering Eye showed a sudden pickup in vessel activity at and around the entrance to Novorossiysk port, after no visible ships yesterday – indicating that the CPC outage might now be over.

Wild West crosses with the North Sea! Oil, tankers, helicopters and subs come to the North Sea and the weeks-long pursuit is complete! The US European Command confirmed the seizure of the Bella 1/Marinera (IMO: 9230880) in the North Atlantic, despite reported proximity to several Russian navy vessels.

Danger is on the horizon. We’ve moved on from piracy to the outright brink of conflict. The Bella-1 (IMO: 9230880),now named Marinera and claiming a Russian flag to gain Putin’s protection, is reportedly being escorted through the North Atlantic by a Russian submarine as it keeps fleeing from the US Coast Guard – though at this point it’s nearer to the British coast… At what point do we presume this apparently empty vessel is, in fact, not empty? Remember, its original route was from Iran to Venezuela, so it could have been carrying diluent condensate. But so far, claiming Russian protection has worked and the ship hasn’t been boarded or halted – the whole dark fleet should be Russian-flagged. Sorted!

The worries about Israel-Iran boom boom this morning had flat price up to over $62 again for the first time since 30 Dec. It went mainly sideways through the late morning and early afternoon, before plunging just before 15:00 GMT, tumbling to $61.60/bbl by the European close. Back to square one, more or less where we began today’s session. Despite that hit to flat price, the prompt spread was stubborn and unwilling to relinquish the gains it made today, holding at 44c at the close.

In the week ending 2 January 2026, exchange traded futures volumes showed significant increases w/w across instruments in the first three tenors, as traders rolled their positions. Brent showed significant increases particularly in April and May tenors…

They did what they had to do. The Saudis lowered OSPs to Asia by 30c, across their grades. That brings the benchmark Arab Light to Asia price down to just 30c over the average of Dubai and Oman, the weakest since The Officials began publication and in fact since Covid! European destinations got a cut of 40c, while US Gulf OSPs were cut by 40c – except Arab Light, which was cut by 30c. This was little surprise, with the structure implying a 27.5c cut.

Released in full, read it and give us your opinion!
Things were rather funky in the North Sea window today. Chevron, fresh off a big share price jump, was bidding Forties for 30 Jan-5 Feb at Dated +40c. Then all hell broke loose and Forties was a bigger battlefield than Caracas. Glencore added two bids for 21-26 Jan and 27 Jan-1 Feb; Trafi bid 17-26; Eni offered 21-23 Jan; and Gunvor offered 30 Jan-1 Feb. BP lifted that Gunvor offer at Mar BFOE +95c but the other offers went unrequited. But here’s the juice…

A new era of geopolitics, colonization on your face! The old saying ‘might is right’ rings truer than ever. Putin is imposing himself in Ukraine, Trump is bullying Venezuela, ready to take its oil, invade Cuba, do whatever in Mexico, knock off Colombia and grab Iceland. Xi must be rubbing his hands at the precedent set by the most powerful adversary to China’s ambitions to unify Taiwan with the mainland. On what authority can the US now oppose a Chinese military intervention, having assaulted Venezuela, without even consulting Congress?

Sixty bucks is holding up, just about. It would be an early dip into the 50s for Brent but it’s survived its first Asian and European sessions, not quite unscathed but more or less in one piece. It bounced marginally from a low of $60 flat to close at $60.06/bbl, while the prompt spread remains reasonable at 32c.

What a start to the year – 2026 begins with contango! The more the producers chuck out crude, the less money in total they get. Crude production is essentially revenue negative at the margin. If you are producer…it is really painful!
The Dubai physical premium went negative for the first time since The Officials began assessments! At -9.5c, it’s just testing the waters, but is well below the implied premium we saw on Wednesday (the January/March swap spread was at 11c at the Asian close).