Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price initially dipped this afternoon, decreasing from $71.72/bbl at 12:00 BST down to a low of $71.08/bbl at 14:55 BST, before sharply rallying up to the $72.28/bbl handle at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The increase in price may have been due to a combination of new speculative long positions alongside the liquidation of existing short positions and stronger sentiment in the physical market. In the news today, Saudi Arabia is set to boost crude oil exports to China in October by around 3 mb, as Chinese state refiners PetroChina and Sinopec have asked Saudi Arabia for more supply. This could be a sign of China’s propensity to stock up on commodities at lower prices, with Saudi Arabia having reduced the price of Arab Light to Asia by $0.70/bbl for October. In other news, Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst, stated in a note to clients that Hurricane Francine may have disrupted the supply of up to 1.5 mb of crude, amounting to 50,000 bpd. The category 2 hurricane has since weakened to a tropical storm, decreasing from wind speeds of 100mph down to sustained speeds of 35 mph. Finally, the Kremlin has begun a counteroffensive in the Kursk region as Russian soldiers attempt to push back Ukrainian forces, corroborated by President Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Moscow’s troops have been steadily advancing through Eastern Ukraine, approaching the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.41/bbl, respectively.
