Summary
It’s been a fairly uninspiring fortnight for gasoline bulls, with the M1 (Sep’25) RBOB futures crack ticking up from $19.75/bbl on 9 Jul to a high of $20.77/bbl on 15 Jul before plummeting to $17.90/bbl at the time of writing on 24 Jul. Last week’s news that the Dangote refinery in Nigeria will postpone its turnaround by a month to August 2025 did not have much impact on price action. Moreover, while 22 Jul witnessed the EIA reporting a 1.74mb decline in US gasoline inventories, this also failed to support RBOB for too long. Highlighting this weakness, Onyx’s CTA net positioning recorded a 153% decline in net long positioning (longs minus shorts) in the week ending 24 Jul from 3.2k lots on 17 Jul to sub-zero at -1.6k lots on 24 Jul.
