In the week ending 06 Jan, the M1 Brent futures contract declined from highs of $62.33/bbl on 31 Dec to a low of $60/bbl on 02 Jan. From here, prices recovered to $61.80/bbl on 05 Jan before dipping to close at $60.48/bbl on 06 Jan. Waning Russia-Ukraine peace talks and expectations of a imminent supply glut initially pressured prices, before a 03 Jan US attack on Venezuela offered some support. However, the market’s response to this news seemed relatively muted.
The M1 RBOB swap crack rolled up this week, from $11.50/bbl at close on 30 Dec to open at $12.61/bbl on 02 Jan. The specific Feb’26 RBOB swap crack extended its losses from 24 Dec. The M1 ICE gasoil swap crack eased from $22.39/bbl on 30 Dec to $22.81/bbl on 06 Jan. The backwardation in the M1/M2 gasoil futures spread has eased to $2.20/mt, its lowest level since August 2025 and well below seasonal levels for this time of the year.
This week in Brent, we anticipate money managers to trim length. In ICE gasoil, money managers are expected to trim length while adding to shorts. In RBOB futures, these players are expected to add to length. Producers/merchants are expected to add length in Brent, while being risk-on across the board in ICE gasoil and RBOB, signalling anticipated refiner hedging.
