Mar’26 Brent futures saw support at $61.15/bbl overnight and reached an early morning high of over $61.60/bbl at around 04.30 GMT before softening to around $61.27/bbl at 06.45 GMT (time of writing). Both Brent and WTI are on track for their biggest annual decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. According to data cited by Reuters, Kazakhstan’s oil production fell sharply in December after damage to the CPC export terminal disrupted shipments from its largest fields. Output dropped about 6% from November, with production at the Tengiz field down 10% following the disruption. The US Dollar Index edged higher toward 98.50 after the December FOMC Minutes suggested the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts. Even so, the dollar is heading for its biggest annual drop in years, down nearly 9.5%. Markets now largely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January, following a 25-basis-point cut in December. Russia says it has put out a fire at the Tuapse oil refinery following a Ukrainian drone attack. Preliminary reports indicate that the blaze affected the AVT-12 unit, a key part of the refinery’s primary processing stage responsible for atmospheric and vacuum distillation of crude oil. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Mar/Apr’26) and 6-month (Mar/Sep’26) spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.59/bbl, respectively.
