FLUX INSIGHTS REVIEW
Welcome to 2026, the Year of the Horse, a fitting title for what already looks like a volatile ride for energy markets. The year opened with the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. While the official justification centred on allegations of drug trafficking, Venezuela’s position as the holder of the world’s largest oil reserves has not gone unnoticed. Venezuelan crude exports have already been heavily disrupted by a US blockade, resulting in ship loadings reaching a 17-month low in December 2025. In a scenario where these sanctions were removed under US control, crude balances, particularly for heavier grades, would loosen materially, pressuring heavier refined fuels such as high-sulphur fuel oil, while simultaneously supporting naphtha demand, which Venezuela imports to dilute its heavy crude. For now, however, the blockade remains firmly in place.
