The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has seen lower highs this morning, from $65.12/bbl at 01.03 GMT to $64.60/bbl at 09.37 GMT (time of writing). The International Energy Agency’s 2025 World Energy Outlook projects that global oil and gas demand could keep rising until 2050. This marks a shift from its earlier forecast of a near-term peak, as the IEA reverted to modelling based on existing policies rather than climate pledges. Under the current policy scenario, oil demand is expected to reach 113 mb/d by 2050. Growth will be driven largely by emerging markets and developing economies, particularly in the transport, petrochemical, and aviation sectors. OPEC and the EIA release their monthly outlooks today. In the US, the House Rules Committee voted 8–4 along party lines to advance the Senate bill to reopen the government, rejecting all amendments. The full House is expected to vote on the rule and final passage on Wednesday. FAA-mandated flight cuts have reached 6%, with officials warning they’ll rise sharply if the shutdown persists. Iran has accelerated development at the South Azadegan oilfield, bringing one of four production trains online with an 80kb/d capacity. The Central Treatment & Export Plant aims for a total output of 320kb/d, with work on Train D expected to finish by year-end. At the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are $0.26/bbl and $0.57/bbl, respectively.
