Mar’26 Brent futures gapped down around 20c/bbl on open to $61.07/bbl at 0100 GMT before it saw higher highs overnight and this morning, to around $61.78/bbl at 10.00 GMT (time of writing). The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it has suspended oil exports from its Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk due to bad weather and full storage, worsening disruptions caused by a Ukrainian drone attack on 29 Nov. The terminal, which handles about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, is operating with only one mooring point, cutting shipments by 19% so far in December and pushing CPC Blend exports to a 14-month low. Saudi Arabia said its national security was a “red line” it would defend, hours after a coalition it leads carried out what it called a “limited military operation” at Yemen’s Mukalla port, striking vehicles and cargo it said had been supplied by a foreign military to southern separatists. The strikes came days after the coalition warned the Southern Transitional Council (STC) against taking military action in Hadramout province. US President Donald Trump warned that the United States could back another major strike on Iran if it is found rebuilding missile or nuclear programs, and issued an ultimatum to Hamas to disarm. Speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said Washington was closely monitoring Iran’s activities and would not tolerate renewed escalation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Ukraine carried out a drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s state residence in Russia’s Novgorod region on 29 Dec, an allegation he did not substantiate and that Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed as disinformation. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev echoed the accusation, saying Zelenskyy was trying to derail US-backed peace talks and threatening that he would be forced into hiding. Thailand’s Royal Thai Navy and the Thai Maritime Enforcement Command Centre Region 1 have detained a Thai-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Thailand over alleged violations, as part of a crackdown on fuel smuggling and stricter checks on shipments suspected of heading to Cambodia. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Mar/Apr’26) and 6-month (Mar/Sep’26) spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.68/bbl, respectively.
