The Mar’26 Brent futures declined below $61/bbl into Tuesday evening and opened lower on Wednesday, trading in a range between $59.90 and $60.40/bbl, printing $60.34/bbl at 17:30 SGT (time of writing). Support has been reinforced at the $60 psychological level, while the bearish sentiment was likely reinforced by Trump’s Truth Social post that “interim authorities” in Venezuela would be providing 30 to 50mb of oil to US at its market price. However, the timing of the release of these barrels, and whether these will include the barrels built up during the blockade, is uncertain. The US is demanding that Venezuela expel China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba and partner exclusively with America on oil in exchange for allowing it to pump and sell crude. As Trump moves to assert US control over Venezuela’s oil sector, European firms like Eni and Repsol remain sidelined without US licences while Washington courts American oil majors to rebuild production, leaving the EU stuck between unpaid debts, political risk, and diminishing influence. Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are preparing a joint bid for Lukoil’s $22 billion portfolio of international assets after the Trump administration signalled support for placing the sanctioned Russian company’s overseas operations under long-term US ownership. California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Tuesday that Valero would keep importing gasoline into Northern California after its Benicia refinery ceases operations in April rather than making a full exit from the market. Finally, the front-month (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.70/bbl respectively.
