Precious metals bounce again, gold up 2.3% this morning, silver up over 4%. Other safe haven assets, including Swiss Franc and sovereign debt did not react, with a rather muted reaction. Copper is climbing too, as COMEX copper approaches its late-July highs above $5.80/lb. Key resistance around $5.90/lb.
Chevron stock jumped 2.3% on Friday (Figure 1), in advance of the US attack on Venezuela – watch what it does today!
China’s non-official RatingDog PMI for December showed solid expansion in both services (52) and composite measures (53.1). Japan’s manufacturing PMI was revised up for December to 50, above market expectations of 49.7, just about breaking even.
Asia shows sharp divergence. Japan’s central bank reiterated its intention to keep tightening as inflation improves, pushing JGB yields higher, with the 10-year yield at 2.125%, offering limited support for the yen (Figure 2).
In contrast, China’s PBOC drained liquidity and set a weaker yuan fixing, while authorities doubled down on supporting growth, stabilising property markets and targeting ~5% growth in 2026.
China has kicked off its 2026 national consumption subsidy programme early, signalling policy continuity, but the scale looks smaller than last year. The 1Q26 allocation of CNY62.5bn implies a full-year total of roughly CNY250bn if unchanged, below the CNY300bn rolled out in 2025. That reduction risks a material drag on growth, especially in the first half, compounded by tough base effects from last year’s front-loaded support.
Crypto is showing signs of a rally in January so far, with every day of 2026 green for Bitcoin, which is 5% up from close of December – similar gains for Ethereum.
Data today: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
