Reports
European Window: Brent falls below $81/bbl
The October Brent futures flat price trended lower on Tuesday afternoon, falling by over $1 after hitting resistance at the $82/bbl level, reaching lows of $80.62/bbl at 17:07 BST, and trading at $80.81/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The fall in prices can be attributed to a fading geopolitical risk premia on the decreasing likelihood of an imminent attack by Iran against Israel, while the IEA report released earlier projected a grim forecast on global oil demand growth relative to OPEC projections.
Naphtha Report: Have We Hit the Top-J…?
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
Dubai Market Report – Du-not-Bai
The strength emerged from a pitiful Dubai complex riddled with selling flow on the back of bearish macroeconomic data and the sell-off within wider risk assets
Onyx Alpha: Moving in Flow Motion
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Officials: Dubai gets crushed and takes out Kennie, again!
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Strengthens to $82/bbl Levels
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
Daily Trade Idea: 13/08/2024
Short Sep 0.5% Sing Crack -The Asian LSFO has seen strength in the last few days with above average bunkering activity. However we have observed that Al-Zour refinery exports are expecting to increase with summer power generation demand typically cooling
The Officials: Vitol cruising for a date(d) brent
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
European Window: Brent surges above $81/bbl
The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR…
Futures Report: Fancy a Bull-ini?
Last week, the Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a significant sell-off, following which sentiment recovered. The benchmark crude futures contract went from $76.30/bbl on 06 Aug to $80.40/bbl on 12 Aug (at the time of writing).
CFTC Weekly: The CTA Bears Go All-In
It was a bearish week for global crude benchmarks (Brent + WTI), which also suffered from the fallout from the sell-off in global risk assets following a weak US employment data report and the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Notably, the significant increase in short positions across the key futures benchmarks imply that the recent sell-off was exacerbated by fresh CTA selling, in addition to the liquidation of length by discretionary and risk-parity funds.
The Officials: Aramco’s nominations are out!
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Just Shy of $80.40/bbl
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
European Window: Brent flirts with $80/bbl
The Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a largely rangebound afternoon, with the flat price first falling from $79.50/bbl at 13:10 BST to $78.85/bbl around 15:10 BST, only to firm up to $79.70/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).