The gasoline market continues to float without direction, riddled with illiquidity as players lament and let go of all hope for the summer. EBOB cracks have been particularly hit this fortnight due to Europe losing the New York Harbor as a demand outlet as demand for gasoline becomes increasingly muted.
The October Brent futures flat price saw better support on Tuesday afternoon, finding a springboard of $75.60/bbl before gapping up to $77/bbl before coming off to $76.62/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). The US Department of Energy announced two solicitations to purchase oil for the SPR, 1.5mb for delivery into the Bayou Choctaw site and 2.0mb for the Bryan Mound site, both in January 2025. Libya’s NOC said on Tuesday that it is gradually reducing production from the Sharara field, citing force majeure due to protests in the area.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a morning of two halves. We initially saw the benchmark crude futures contract firm up to $80.40/bbl at 09:00 BST but saw these gains fade amid a sell-off to $79.75/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing).
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The oil market was no wiser in July when it came to the fundamental outlook and particularly global oil demand growth this year.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The October Brent futures flat price has been decimated this afternoon, falling from $79.70/bbl at 12:10 BST to a low of $76.75/bbl at 15:40 BST, before it retraced marginally up to $76.90/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing).
It was a risk-off week in the global crude benchmarks as money managers reduced long positions and added short positions. Preceded by five consecutive weeks of increases, long positions declined by 46.9mb (-8%). Meanwhile, short positions increased by 12mb (+8%). As a result, net positioning fell by 59.0mb (-13.8%), the largest rate in two months, while the long:short ratio fell from 4.03:1.00 to 3.41:1.00. The rate of sales was fuelled by the reversal of sentiment in WTI futures following the expiry of the Aug’24 contract. Global crude oil flat prices came off last week, with Brent crucially finding support at the $80/bbl level.
Swing Low, Sweet Crude Brent crude futures suffered a major sell-off amidst mounting recession fears in the US, as the front-month October contract fell to the $75/bbl level on 5 August (at time of writing). The catalyst was Friday’s nonfarm
Prices have fallen in the Oct’24 Brent futures, ICE LS gasoil futures and RBOB gasoline futures contracts in the week ending 05 Aug. While open interest has been on an uptick in gasoil and RBOB, Brent saw more de-risking into August.
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract softened this morning, falling from above $77/bbl around 05:30 BST to $76.65/bbl around 08:35 BST.
Long Sep/Oct 3.5% Barge On Friday we saw Sep/Oct hit the lowest price it has been since January this year. Looking at the Onyx CoT data the RSI has crept into the oversold territory at 33.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
