While outright values suggest that the physical market is tight, whether or not this translates to a bullish market is a subjective matter. Notional values are high, but CFD rolls continue to roll down weekly. The 21-25 July 1-week roll
The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.32/bbl at 09:46 BST before recovering to $68.73/bbl at 10:12 BST. Prices have since softened to $68.57/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Nigeria’s Dangote Oil Refinery plans to increase
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we look at trades in Distillate and NGL swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract saw lower highs over the afternoon. The contract fell from over $69.20/bbl at 13.45 BST to below $68.45/bbl at 15.09 BST. Although the contract rose above $69.00/bbl around 16.05-16.15 BST, it failed to maintain this
In the week ending 15 Jul, exchange open interest in Brent and WTI futures increased by a combined 173mb (+3.66%). This is the second week of increasing risk in the crude futures benchmarks. This increase was fairly similar, on a
An Unwinding of Upside Protection Last week, the European Union approved its 18th package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. The newest measures included an import ban on refined products processed from Russian crude oil in third
Sep’25 Brent futures were supported in the early morning, from $69.25/bbl at 03.40 BST to fail to hold strength above $69.60/bbl at 06.45 BST. The contract has since softened to around $68.95/bbl at 11.25 BST (time of writing). Turkey will
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $70.75/bbl around 13:20 BST, where it met resistance. Despite fighting to remain above the critical $70/bbl handle at first, prices ultimately sold off and stand at $69.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of
High Sulphur Fuel Oil has been weak, but there seems to be more buying interest at these levels. The Aug’25 3.5% barge crack rose early from -$2.45/bbl on 8 Jul to -$1.75/bbl on 9 Jul, then fell to -$3.75/bbl on
The Sep’25 Brent futures strengthened this morning, from a daily low of $69.41/bbl at 04.35 BST to $70.40/bbl at 10.45 BST, softening to $70.12/bbl at 11.25 BST (time of writing). The EU approved its 18th sanctions package on Russia and
It is hard to keep Brent away from the $60s, with price action slipping from $71.55/bbl at the start of the week to $68.90/bbl at the time of writing on 17 Jul. Nevertheless, NWE and Asian refinery margins remain supported,
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract has seen a choppy afternoon, albeit still rangebound around $68/bbl. Prices finally broke above $69/bbl around 16:30 BST and stand at $69.36/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing), where they appear to be meeting resistance.
The naphtha market has been relatively lacklustre over the fortnight as price action largely stabilised. The Dangote refinery importing naphtha for its reformer sparked bullish sentiment, but news of the refinery moving forward its turnaround from August to July quickly
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell to $68.34/bbl at 09:29 BST before jumping between $68.80/bbl and $68.29. At 11:30 BST (time of writing) prices were at $68.65/bbl. In the news, India is confident it can meet its oil needs from
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
