Initially, this fortnight was relatively quiet, and we saw a naphtha market saturated with short positions and extremely high open interest in many of the prompt contracts across the complex. In the early morning of 13 Jun, Israel launched 200
The front-month (Aug’25) Brent futures contract strengthened to $77.55/bbl this morning, where it met resistance and eased to $76.80/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST).
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Jul’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane contract (Energy Transfer), C3 LST, rallied from a 5 Jun low of $0.71/gal to $0.82/gal as of June 18. Over that same period, the 30-day correlation between the front-month C3 LST and WTI futures
The August Brent Futures contract softened slightly through the morning, trading down from $76.89/bbl at 04:00 BST to $75.30/bbl at 10:25 BST, before picking up to $75.78/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST). In headlines, on the US-Iran front,
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept
The M1 Brent futures contract jumped from a high of nearly $68/bbl on 10 Jun to $70/bbl on 12 Jun. The contract subsequently gapped up to $74/bbl on 13 Jun due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, but has
Given the return of geopolitical risk and the resulting hysterical volatility in the futures market, it has been a quieter-than-expected period in the Dubai market. In theory, Brent/Dubai was expected to crater on fears of supply disruption in the Middle
The Dated market rallied from already robust levels as the physical received strong bids. There was initially some weakness in the physical differential on 10-12 Jun as on 11 Jun there was 23-27/Jun CFD sold by a British Major with
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract softened this morning to around $72.80/bbl at 0800 BST before it strengthened to $74.55/bbl at 1200 BST (time of writing). Iran and Israel continued exchanging fire for a fifth consecutive day, with Iranian media reporting
The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST
Brent forecast – Geopolitical special Iran has rejected truce talks while under attack, refusing to negotiate until it has completed its response to Israel’s strikes. This is the fourth day of open warfare, and the line in the sand around
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we focus on geopolitical risk and look at trades in Gasoil, Naphtha, and Propane swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract traded between $75.20/bbl and $73.97/bbl in the morning before falling off to $73.48/bbl at10:13 BST. Prices bounced back to $73.74/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran may consider withdrawing from the
In the week ending 10 June, crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) were on a bullish trajectory, breaking above previously rangebound trading levels. Money managers increased their length for the sixth consecutive week, with long positions rising by 24.8mb (+5%).<br
