In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
This fortnight, the naphtha market saw greater weakness. NWE naphtha cracks and spreads saw notable weakness through May. The Jun’25 crack fell from -$2.65/bbl on 8 May to -$3.90/bbl by 22 May, erasing earlier gains and dropping below 2018 and
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell from $65.03/bbl to $63.69/bbl at 08:14 BST. Prices slightly recovered to $63.87/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is discussing a potential oil production increase of 411kb/d for July, Bloomberg
The Jun’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (Energy Transfer) contract, C3 LST, initially climbed this fortnight amid support in LST spreads and buy-side interest in the C3 LST/FEI arb. However, price action has since been stagnant, declining from 79.50c/gal on 14
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week.
Jul’25 Brent futures jumped by $0.60/bbl last night following a CNN report that said Israel is considering a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. These gains have been lost over the morning as the contract softened to $65.95/bbl at 11:40 BST
In our previous report, we anticipated a prolonged period of de‑risking in the Brent/Dubai complex, with prices oscillating within a broad band, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Over the past fortnight, the Jun’25 Brent/Dubai crack traded between -$0.25/bbl and
M1 Brent futures consolidated this week, seeing resistance at $66.80/bbl on 13 May. The contract failed to close below the 20-day moving average (white line) and saw support at around $63.45/bbl on 15 May. The 9-day moving average has acted
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in fuel oil and light ends swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of
Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position,
In the week ending 13 May, the crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) saw support in price action. Total managed-by-money positions in the two futures benchmarks saw a 29mb increase in long positioning (+7%) alongside a 9.7mb removal of shorts
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a rangebound morning, initially trading between $64.81/bbl and $65.18/bbl. Prices then fell to $64.45/bbl at 11:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Guyana has passed a new oil pollution bill that makes companies
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude.
