QatarEnergy’s joint venture, which aims to convert the Golden Pass LNG import terminal in Texas into a large-scale export facility, has requested a three-year extension from US authorities to complete the project by 30 November 2029
Nov’24 Brent futures flat price was volatile this morning, strengthening from $79.14/bbl at 07:00 BST to a high of $79.49/bbl at 08:25 BST before declining to $78.81 at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In the news today, OPEC’s secretary general visited Baghdad, Iraq, securing assurance on full conformity with compensation cuts, which plan to reduce Iraq’s output to between 3.85-3.9 mb/d in September. In other news, Reuters confirmed this morning that no oil spill has been detected off the coast of Yemen, after an abandoned 274-metre-long oil tanker, containing around 1 mb, was attacked by Houthi rebels. An oil spill of this magnitude with 150,000 tonnes of crude would be more than half the size of the largest ever spill recorded from a ship, according to the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Limited (ITOPF). Finally, Shell has decided to cut 20% of its workers in oil and gas exploration units, focused in the US, Netherlands, and Britain. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.87/bbl and $2.81/bbl, respectively.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Nov’24 Brent futures flat price rallied this afternoon, increasing from $77.72/bbl at 12:00 BST to a high of $79.55/bbl at 15:00 BST before coming to rest around $78.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Typhoon Shanshan hit Japan’s southwestern island of Kyushu, with three people reported dead and one missing, according to Bloomberg. The storm hit the city of Kagoshima at top speeds of 123mph and is heading towards the main island of Honshu, where the major port of Mizushima and multiple oil refineries are located. In other news, US Q2’24 GDP was revised up to 3% y/y, primarily driven by consumer spending. At the same time, US weekly jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 231,000 in the week ending 24 Aug against a Reuters poll forecasting 232,000 claims for this week. Lastly, Iraq plans to cut oil output to 3.85-3.9mb/d in September 2024, and cancelled a spot cargo of 1mb in August to reduce exports, a source told Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.82/bbl and $2.63/bbl respectively.
In this week’s crude pendulum, we swung above $80 and back down again in a (co)sinusoidal fashion. Range trading seems to be the play here, and the trend-latching CTAs would have likely been well rewarded. The amount of outright managed money shorts in the main oil futures benchmarks is exceedingly high compared to historical levels, pressuring the long:short ratio of Brent futures down to levels last seen during Covid.
Yesterday Vatman and Gobin were firmly in control but today the story was different. Almost all of the Dubai
Duo’s hard work yesterday was erased at the close of Asia on a premium basis. Relative to other benchmark
grades, Dubai got slammed, with October Brent futures premium over Dubai physical cargoes widening by
88c to $1.79. On a physical premium basis, compared to yesterday, the longs were hammered, with Dubai
partials premium minus Oct swaps falling by almost 50c to $1.17. It lost almost all it gained yesterday.
The October Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile morning, trading from $78.90/bbl around 08:45 BST to a low of $78.12/bbl at 10:00 BST before rallying back up to print at $78.68/bbl, at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines, Libya’s oil production, which stood at 1.2 mb/d, was halted at several fields after the rival eastern government ordered a stop to all oil production and exports. This move deepened Libya’s political crisis, stemming from a dispute over the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the sole internationally recognized depository for the country’s oil revenues. Meanwhile, ONEOK, one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure operators, announced a $5.9 billion acquisition of stakes in two energy companies from Global Infrastructure Partners. ONEOK will acquire a 43% stake in EnLink Midstream for $3.3 billion and a stake in Medallion Midstream for $2.6 billion. This follows ONEOK’s $18.8 billion acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners last year, further expanding its network of over 50,000 miles of pipelines. At the time of writing, the Oct/Nov and Oct/Apr’25 Brent Futures spreads are trading at $1.06/bbl and $3.39/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
This afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures flat price showed upward movement from $77.30/bbl at 12:00 BST to $77.90/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). During this time, prices were volatile with a rally to $78.16/bbl, a marked decline to $77.36/bbl at 15:30 BST before climbing to a high of $78.49/bbl at 16:07 BST. After the release of EIA stats today at 15:30 BST, Oct WTI prices reacted positively, showing upward movement from $74.52/bbl to $75/bbl at 17:00 BST. Libyan oil output has now dropped to less than 600 kb/d after producing an average of 1.2mb for the past year, following a series of oilfield closures by the eastern government this month. According to Bloomberg, this production cut is a response to the Tripoli-based government’s attempt to replace the central bank’s leadership. With Libya exporting around 85% of its oil barrels to Europe in recent years, it is likely European refiners will turn to the U.S. and West Africa to replace the Libyan light sweet crude. In other news, the Rhine river’s falling water levels are severely restricting the cargo limits for barges heading to inland Europe, Bloomberg said. Water levels on the Rhine have dropped periodically in recent years, with the water level at Kaub expected to be as low as 108cm by Sep. 1. As a result, a barge which can normally haul as much as 2.5k mt of middle distillates is restricted to loading 1.36k mt if heading past Kaub. This could drop as low as 1.2k mt. Finally, the Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May Brent futures spreads are at $0.79/bbl and $2.60/bbl respectively.
Sentiment largely improved this fortnight in Asian LPG, with the Oct/Nov Far East (FEI) propane spread surging up from -$3/mt on 14 Aug to $1.50/mt on 27 Aug.
The sucker went down. We are talking about the flat price, as Brent flat price shed almost $2.50/bbl against yesterday. But in Dubai is a completely different story. The longs are winning on a premium basis.
This morning, the October Brent Futures contract has seen a steep decline from highs of $79.70/bbl at 07:55 BST down to $78.35/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines, an oil depot in the Russia’s southern Rostov region was set ablaze in a Ukrainian drone strike, a retaliatory response to the Russian assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure this Monday.
27 August 2024: 16:30 BST Having surged upwards yesterday morning on the weekend’s bullish geopolitical news, Brent stagnated around the $81/bbl mark today before sliding to around $79.60/bbl by 18:00 BST in a sell-off after market close. “They’re keeping the
It was a paradigm shift in the Brent/Dubai crude market as the orderly downtrend in Brent/Dubai gave way to a mighty rally on 26 August following Brent’s rally on the Libyan supply disruption news. The Sep’24 Brent/Dubai widened from $0.30/bbl to highs of $0.90/bbl. Nonetheless, the complex is entering September pricing on a strong note, with the Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box suppressed below -$0.30/bbl. In contrast, outright prices in the deferred have returned to previous highs above $1/bbl.
Despite the vanishing trading volumes amid 26 Aug’s UK public holiday, the beginning of the week has been anything but quiet in Brent futures.
