This week has seen a battle between bullish and bearish forces, kicking off with a focus on poor Chinese oil demand as China’s refinery run rates fell for the seventh month in a row, down 4.6% y/y. Moreover, China’s VAT
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, increasing from $73.25/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $73.95/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk was elevated as Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the southern city
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon after initial strength, moving from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT, before falling to $72.90/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell to the $73/bbl
Middle Eastern propane (C3 CP) drove bullish sentiment in the propane market as CP attracted sticky buying despite lower crude. This was aided by a strong CP settlement and improved demand from India during its festival season. As a result,
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from $73.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to a high of $73.92/bbl at 09:20 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). This morning, a Reuters report citing
Over the past week, the Dated Brent market has been undoubtedly bullish as physical differentials rose from 34c on 11 Nov to 110c on 18 Nov. There has been strong bidding in the physical windows with Petroineos a big bidder
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon from $72.95/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices were volatile this afternoon, rising to $73.85/bbl at 15:25 GMT and steeply selling off to $72.85/bbl
The naphtha market has struggled over the past two weeks, with poor performance observed across both European and Asian complexes. We saw flows primarily skewed towards the sell-side, with trade houses and refiners being key sellers in the NWE crack
November continues to be a lacklustre month in the Brent/Dubai complex as market participants gradually retreat and become more risk-off leading up to Christmas. Glance no further at open interest levels where market risk is focused in the front tenors
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, decreasing from $73.35/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 09:30 GMT, before recovering slightly to $73.10/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices dipped this morning as Lebanon and
In the week ending 12 November, money managers added length to their positions in both Brent and WTI crude futures. Following Donald Trump’s election victory, we saw Hurricane Rafael divert course from the US Gulf Coast, leaving oil infrastructure unscathed,
The oil market continues to be in consolidatory wait-and-see mode regarding the gap between the “drill baby drill” campaign rhetoric and actual change to the physical crude supply from the US. The lack of meaningful price movement has been clear,
The Jan’25 Brent Futures rallied this afternoon, rising from $71.44/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.27/bbl by 16:20 GMT before encountering resistance and retracing slightly to $73/bbl as of 17:15 GMT. In headlines, news of a power outage halting output at
