Reports

Naphtha Report: The Cream of The Crop-J

The international naphtha market continued to see shocking strength unfold. There has been decent buying in the NWE naphtha spreads, compared to the likely profit-taking flow in the East, although both markets have been quite quiet in the fortnight. Weaker crude was helpful for the cracks, although this has now been reversed with a stronger crude print. Petchem buying has supported both regions. Chinese funds selling the PX-MOPJ spread have supported the Asian naphtha as they sell this in anticipation of further economic issues. Petchem flow has been really important in supporting prices in the past two weeks. There was significant buying in the Euro Cal’25 crack by trade houses, likely for ethylene hedging, which drove prices up as the NWE propane complex continues to be extraordinarily strong. In the East, the Bal-Aug/Sep MOPJ also strengthened due to propane’s influence as players sold into the E/W and MOPJ spreads.

European Window: Brent Weakens Below $80/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price suffered a setback on Tuesday afternoon as its sell-off accelerated following the US open. Price action fell from the $81/bbl level at 12:00 BST to lows of $79.63/bbl by 17:25 BST (time of writing). In line with this, Brent spreads weakened significantly, with Oct/Nov falling from $1.10/bbl to $0.90/bbl over the same time frame.

Onyx Alpha: Crude Behaviour

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Dated Brent, Gasoil and Naphtha. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

The Officials: The Tale of Two Cities continues

27 August 2024: 09:30 BST Flat price Dubai underperforms while Brent gets a boost. There are many reasons why: sources reconfirmedthat Libya shut off its crude production. 1mb/d of light sweet crude off the market plus the gold Power Powelldusted

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Volatile Around $81/bbl

The October Brent Futures contract saw a weaker morning, trading from $81.60/bbl down to a daily low of $80.59 before rallying back up to $80.95/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (11:20 BST). In headlines, Russia launched approximately 200 missiles at Ukraine on Monday, targeting energy installations and causing power and water outages in Kyiv.

Brent Forecast: 26th August 2024

We expect Nov’24 Brent futures to end the week trading between $78/bbl and $82.00/bbl in what continues to be a range-bound market, albeit the range is likely to be slightly wider than in recent weeks. Given the excitement around the

CFTC Weekly: Second Breakfast

The bullish sentiment in crude was short-lived as money managers reverted to getting shorter in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 20 August. Sentiment in crude futures has become increasingly bearish on a combination of factors. The geopolitical risk premium has evaporated as markets react to positive progress towards a ceasefire deal between Israel-Hamas, whilst assessing no imminent threat to oil production, transportation, and infrastructure in the region. China’s economic troubles have played a significant role, with both OPEC and the IEA revising down their global oil demand growth projections, citing the impact of a weakened economy on oil consumption.

Futures Report: How Soft Is The Landing?

Last week, Brent futures slipped in the first half of the week and the market priced in an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which did not materialise. Prices were then supported as the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole some dovish hope into the market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need to support a strong labour market and acknowledged the unmistakable cooling in labour conditions.

The Officials: Dubai’s bumpy road

26 August 2024: 09:30 BST Vitol and Gunvor had a tougher window today, “Trafigura sells to” was the theme. But the flat price soaredregardless, but the real action was in Brent. Any price seemed right to sell to, and Trafigura

European Window: Brent Strengthens to $79/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price rallied into Friday afternoon, climbing by $1 from $78/bbl to the $79/bbl level by 17:00 BST (time of writing). Markets were buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, where he stated that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, which was interpreted as a dovish signal. However, the question remains about the amount of the cut (25bps or 50bps), and the upcoming non-farm payrolls report on 7 September may change the calculus. BP has acquired a stake in a Chinese sustainable jet fuel company (Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co.) for 350 million yuan ($49 million). China’s Rongsheng has purchased an Aframax-sized cargo of Canada’s Kearl Lake Blend crude, which is being transported via the TMX pipeline. The crude grade is set to arrive in China for the first time since 2018. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.85/bbl and $2.84/bbl respectively.

The Officials: Dubai Here We Come

23 August 2024: 09:30 BST Dynamic duo Vitol and Gunvor’s avid purchasing is having a discernible impact on the physical premiumswhich have now risen to $1.12/bbl, the highest level of the month. The aggressive bidding has boostedphysical premiums by 25cts

Fuel Oil Report – Ships Don’t Lie

Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) saw a very strong two weeks, with strength especially prominent in the past week and beginning to soften on 24 Aug.