The Officials

Dear readers, we would like to thank you for accompanying and supporting us in our journey since we began publication in June last year. Without you commenting on areas of improvement and, very importantly, providing data and market insights, the publications would not be possible. We have been steady in publishing without fail on working days with a very committed team to make sure you, as a reader, get the latest incisive commentary and market news. And we have reached a time when our publication must move to a commercial footing.
We remain committed to you and will, of course, continue to provide daily market analysis and MOC assessments for 1630 Singapore and 1630 London closes, plus our weekly offering of the Liquidity Report and a whole set of soon-to-be-announced podcasts and market commentary. In addition to this, commercialisation will allow us to give you access to our historic data and daily assessments via API and data dashboard, plus direct receipt of all our reports by email. For further information, please contact our sales representative, Remona Tefaj, by email (rtefaj@onyxcapitalgroup.com) or WhatsApp ‪+971585427411.

Dear readers, we would like to thank you for accompanying and supporting us in our journey since we began publication in June last year. Without you commenting on areas of improvement and, very importantly, providing data and market insights, the publications would not be possible. We have been steady in publishing without fail on working days with a very committed team to make sure you, as a reader, get the latest incisive commentary and market news. And we have reached a time when our publication must move to a commercial footing.
We remain committed to you and will, of course, continue to provide daily market analysis and MOC assessments for 1630 Singapore and 1630 London closes, plus our weekly offering of the Liquidity Report and a whole set of soon-to-be-announced podcasts and market commentary. In addition to this, commercialisation will allow us to give you access to our historic data and daily assessments via API and data dashboard, plus direct receipt of all our reports by email. For further information, please contact our sales representative, Remona Tefaj, by email (rtefaj@onyxcapitalgroup.com) or WhatsApp ‪+971585427411.

Traders are definitely back from the summer holidays, but are they scared or something? Flat price was on a rollercoaster today, declining steadily in the early hours, before Novak’s murmurings spiked it up, after which it came back down with a vengeance. The American open pushed it up but it spent most of the day below $67. But it climbed fast through the window to reach the European close at $67.06/bbl!

Stop the clocks! Oman’s Lazarus-style resurrection is complete! Prompt Oman futures are now pricing higher than prompt Murban futures, reaching an 11c premium over the lighter grade. Ok, let’s not get carried away; Oman will still face its usual expiry issues but the Murban party might be over. The Murban strength has baffled many recently, but that looks to have fizzled out, as the prompt Murban/Brent futures spread falls to $2.33, the lowest since 15 August and against Dubai partials, Murban is now at a discount!

This market is nervous! I think the combination of the big guys meeting in Tianjin and plotting their way to greatness, combined with Trump’s off-the-cuff, ephemeral policy statements and upcoming OPEC meeting, just makes for a twitchy market. Up and down like an untameable feral horse. But prices remain inside the $65-70/bbl confines. It was the front that took the biggest blow, as the prompt spread collapsed to 39c in the morning before partially recovering to 45c by the close. Bruised, November Brent reached the close at $67.48/bbl. And let’s not forget that the biggest industry meeting, APPEC is coming up in Singapore. We therefore expect some careful messaging to the crafted.

The oil market is fun, rising and falling by over a dollar in the past 48 hours. It is a peculiar behaviour which you can see in the accompanying graph. The downward corrections are particularly sharp, like a scared market ready to jump at the smallest movement in its own shadow. The market has been trying to go up and breach the $70.00/bbl resistance level but then there are news or something and all the traders get scared and cut back.

After the blistering take off on the entry of European liquidity this morning, Brent flat price cratered in the early afternoon, plunging from its high above $69.50 to near $68! It bedded down in the afternoon session, holding on to $68.81/bbl by the European close. Why, ‘because Russia said something about peace talks,’ said a source. Later the flat price continued to rise like, I want to see 70, kind of thing. The prompt spread got a battering too, tumbling back to the mid-50c range, having been pushing towards 70c this morning.

In the week ending 29 August 2025, exchange traded futures volumes dropped significantly w/w on the October contract as traders were rolling their positions to November. October Brent futures volumes experience the steepest weekly decline (-51.57%), while October WTI volumes were down over 37%. In the November tenor, most contracts were up w/w except Heating Oil, and WTI was down 28.7% w/w. Meanwhile, December futures were down across all instruments with WTI volumes falling the most – over 30% down w/w.

ADNOC came out super early with its October loading crude oil OSPs. Last month they kept us waiting for the release, but this time, they’re out of the traps like a greyhound! The Murban OSP is set as an average of the month’s IFAD minute markets, so is a purely mechanical process. There’s no need for them to wait for the more vibey Saudis!
For October, Murban is set at $70.10/bbl, down $1.02 from the September OSP. The flat price decrease should not surprise anybody, who should focus instead on the hanging question: why was Murban so strong relative to all the other medium sweet crude oils? ‘It is a big mystery,’ said a trader. ‘We can’t explain it, it makes no sense based on fundamentals,’ said the trader. But in the harsh reality as a reflection of what traded in the futures exchange. I guess he implies there was a squeeze.

Brent felt bullish this morning. Very bullish. From around $67.50 at 08:00 BST, it rallied rapidly to over $68.30 by lunchtime, before easing off in the afternoon to take stock and reach the European close at $68.13/bbl. After the Oct/Nov Brent spread reached expiry on Friday, the now prompt Nov/Dec spread has bulked up to trade around the same level, reaching the close at 61c. The vibes were promising in the morning, but the afternoon failed to build on that foundation. In any case, September has started with some strength, both in flat price and the structure – and even the physical got a boost!

Super Dubai! We kicked off September trading with a bang, as the physical premium jumped to $3.47, the highest since February 28! In the window, it was standoffish, as buyers bid at $70.70 and sellers offered $70.80, with neither willing to shift. Only Vitol crossed the gap, lifting Mercuria’s $70.80 offer. The sellside was sparse, as some familiar faces eased off: just Unipec, Mercuria and Exxon offered. The buyside was more energetic: Vitol, Mets, Phillips, Exxon and Gunvor all showed up. Flat price was strong, ‘and if you wanted confirmation, the Dubai spreads were very strong,’ said a trader.