The Officials

Some of us may be Latinos, but too many TACOs! 🌮 We aren’t culinary snobs, but we are getting fed up with the constant diet; we need some borscht or something else. And yes, Trump reversed and his deadlines are a misnomer. They are just sign post to wait for the newest change, extension or accommodation. Yet another 90-day pause to the US-China tariff bombardment means they won’t come into effect until November, assuming no further procrastination… We think he’s taking inspiration from the US’ government’s approach to debt – just kick the can down the road forever! But no one can blame him, he is busy invading Washington DC. Less dangerous than abroad that’s for sure.

We are slightly flipping again. We have been bearish, as you can read from the previous reports. Though here, through Friday, the Trump/Putin meeting in Alaska is dominating the higher-level narrative and price expectations. Since it is summer, it can be hot and cold in that climate, but also in the outcome. Putin is very unyielding, and Trump is slightly mercurial 🤣, and this means the results of the meeting could go right or left, or even be cancelled. Hence, we have a slightly bullish view for the next few days as the possibility of something not being totally sunny in the outcome is greater than zero, if Trump does not get too distracted invading his own capital city. So, just to be clear, we are flipping to slightly bullish and will be very attentive to the meeting narrative.

Saudi allocations for September loadings for China are in, folks, and as expected, they’re down hard. The volumes requested and located are down to 43 million bbls for Sept versus 51 million bbls in August. Customers front-loaded the August loading bbls, as the numbers suggested back then that forward OSPs for September would be higher. And now the forward OSPs for October will be lower than September, and hence, under requesting makes sense. They were more than happy to load up on August barrels, to the tune of 51 million (the biggest allocation we’ve seen since we started reporting). But for September, China will only lift 43 million barrels. Key reductions were seen for Unipec (-6 mil bbl m/m), Fujian (-2 mil bbl m/m), PetroChina (-1 mil bbl m/m), and Shenghong (-1 mil bbl m/m). CNOOC got a minor uplift of 2 mil bbls.

And just as we thought we were having one of the quietest afternoons, boom boom, prices came crashing down! We hope you weren’t long in the early afternoon session! If you are like our European neighbours -here reporting from the UK- who like to take an afternoon nap after lunch, we feel sorry for you, because Brent went for a skydiving session! Don’t get caught napping. Remember, you snooze, you lose! Prices fell from $67.03/bbl all the way down to $65.52/bbl in just 8 minutes. Brent said hasta la vista to the $67 level -for now. The orange man wants cheap oil and he gets it! You can argue with his tactics, but you cannot argue with the end result 🤣.

Trump back on his favourite hobby -after golf- tariffs! He likes them, doesn’t he? Yesterday, he announced tariffs on 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars, a sudden blow to Switzerland, the world’s top gold refining hub. Switzerland exported $61.5 billion in gold to the US in the 12 months to June. But gold is fungible, so Switzerland will export the offending gold bars elsewhere, which will then export their own, or melt it, or whatever. Why is Trump doing this stuff? It does not matter; the price of gold went up. In our opinion, Trump or no Trump, gold is still a buy.

Trump is handing tariff letters as if they were paper towels. In fact he announced a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but companies that invest in US manufacturing will not face any levies. He also stands firm against the Swiss and they’re playing their last card now, asking the FIFA President to negotiate 🤣. How about giving him a pamper full of chocolates and Swiss cheese for the trips in the Qatari plane? But the tiny hand man isn’t focusing on the real threat, the loss of stature of the US and the fact that BRICS had enough. The Officials have been flagging this as it could turn into a full-fledged exit from anything American. India and Russia met to address the “terrorism” from the US. On Wednesday, they signed a new protocol to enhance industrial cooperation across various sectors. The BRICS are getting stronger and this is only the start…And of course, Modi, who is really aggrieved, is soon meeting China’s leader, Xi.

India’s robust reply to Trump’s tariffs stunned quite a few traders. They say now that India had no other option. If this is the case, why did Trump push them to the brink? Tactically and strategically the US is losing friends faster than an oil trader without a job.🤣But enough of that, what did traders think of the jump in Saudi OSPs? High, they said, but the market demand is there. Traders expect China and India to continue to focus on Russian, Iranian and of course Other PG crude streams. Demand is good but the resumption of India’s buying for Russian crude altered the perception and reality of supply and the flat price is struggling. We have heard now of at least 6 Russian cargoes to discharge in India. Trump…take that! The Brent/Dubai swap went downhill this morning, it opened at -65c, and at Singapore close, it plunged to -$1!

Day 1 of the BRICS Liberation Day! Many nations encompassing billions of people and at least twice the US GDP are finally showing some resolve and standing up to Trump. India is the most vocal leader, with Brazil not too far behind, while China has stated its independent position clearly from the very beginning. Trump pushed the new Tariffs on India, and well…he broke the US leadership position. Brent flat price plummeted from $69.17 all the way to $67.95 in just 11 minutes in the aftermath of the US poorly timed action. We hope you went short! Some will ask, why is this bearish? India published a statement saying, “India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests”. This means the Russian supply is back on officially. But why “BRICS Liberation Day”? India this afternoon realised it’s over with the papa Trump, China is already shifting -now seeking global market share in its currency-, Brazil talking about a BRICS currency, and Russia has been waving to the US for the last 3 years from afar. See more in the details!

Saudi OSPs are on the menu today -as confirmed by the Saudis- but it looks like the main course will arrive fashionably later than expected! ‘OSPs are slow,’ said a source. According to sources, Saudi Arabia was still calling people up this morning as they have extra crude to sell! So, dear reader, brace for lower OSPs than the $1.11 -what the monthly structure implies. Some sources are eyeing levels closer to 85c.
We said in the Euro 2.150 report that the KSA has room to crank the pumps, with a source saying, “We are looking at an additional 400 kbpd from Saudi in September.” Supply is increasing and yes, we expect the Saudis to underreport the production number. We, The Officials will remind you again, never trust government data!

And the trade rhetoric continues… with Trump singling out India, which “has not been a good partner.” He vowed to raise tariffs “within 24 hours” due to New Delhi’s continued appetite for Russian crude. A trader summed up the market view, “We are also asking ourselves if Russia stops into India (which I believe is extremely unlikely), how much more Russian can China absorb?” But the oil will only stop in qan imaginary world. Nearer us in Dubai, the trade carries on. The traders continue to move Russian barrels and three vessels are scheduled to be discharged imminently for IOC, Reliance and HPCL. Meanwhile, another source said, “Even over the weekend, EU/UK-sanctioned vessels were discharging”.

In the week ending 1 August 2025, as trading rolled into the October contracts, exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across Brent, Gasoil and WTI in the first three tenors. Brent volumes experienced a particularly strong increase w/w with the December contract posting the largest gain – up nearly 53% w/w. WTI also recorded its biggest rise in the December tenor, though more modest at 22.46% w/w. By contrast, volumes in Heating Oil and RBOB futures declined in the October contract, down 13.14% and 1.06% w/w, respectively.

The bears are back. There is a mounting bearish sentiment in the market. Whether OPEC unwind means more barrels or not the signals say this baby is going down. Chevron is back in Venezuela, new discoveries in Brazil, and Saudi look primed to release more. Combine this with the end of summer burn and the poor macro indicators and you have an undeniably bearish concoction. And today Dubai got absolutely crushed. The physical premium shed 43c to $2.56, the softest since June 27. Look at Brent/Dubai September swap, which closed at -71c and is currently trading at around -65c, just on Friday the contract was at -$1.09!

Trump just cannot keep his mouth shut! The Donald decided to fire renewed tariff threats on India, because they don’t want to stop buying Russian. He “will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA”… We are sure they are quaking! Are they? Or they see another TACO coming? See India’s response on page 3. Seriously, can the US take on Russia, Iran, China, India and Europe? Europe he can, but that’s about it. But flat price jumped 67c in just 3 minutes on the news and the prompt spread rallied to 85c before retracing to the upper $68 handle and to the 80c mark, respectively.

Markets collapsed! The sentiment was extremely bearish and, in a way, it doesn’t matter what OPEC says it does or doesn’t do. The market is reacting to the overall interpretation of supply and things don’t look so good. We told you to go short or maybe we told you we were bearish. Well, here it is, by press time Brent had dropped over $1.00/bbl and was heading to the low $68 handle, why? The Saudi summer burn is over, in the markets we are talking about two months forward and there’s no summer burn there as far as the eye can see. And the broader economic narrative following the US tariffs are expected to chomp a bit of the global GDP. Moreover, product margins are going down as the Chinese crank out exports.

Boys and girls, the tariff fluff is over. India freaked out and tried to curry favour with the US and curtailed back usage of Russian crude and bought American crude, sending the market in a tizzy from 66 to 73 roughly. And despite their bending over like the EU they still were tariffed hard. What we have learnt in life is that if you bend over you get tariffed or worse. Ask the EU 🤣. And now it is all done, the Indian issued a tender and did their buying and the bloom came off the rose. See the tender volume results in the details section.