The Officials

T-day round two! Trump has pulled out the tariff gatling gun once again, firing import duties seemingly at will, slapping 10% or more or none at all on imports bound for the US. About 40 countries’ exports to the US have been hit with 15% tariffs or more. Few have escaped his wrath, but Trump’s bud Kier has gotten off lightly with the UK only getting the 10% minimum!

The slow start to this month was brought to an abrupt end. A bombardment of new tariff threats raced across traders’ screens this week. Will Europe get whacked, or won’t they? Well, they did. Trump hit them with 15% tariffs, less than the initial 30%, but still a heavy-handed blow to the bloc. The euro suffered as a result, giving the DXY a new lease of life, surpassing even 100 points today, the highest since the end of May! Even if the $250 billion per year promised to buy US energy is farcical and little more than a big sticker to congratulate Donald on his negotiation skills, it does demonstrate just how far Europe’s willing to bend for big daddy America.

We thought this month would go through without too much carnage. But nah, it may be summer, time for margaritas or whatever drink with an umbrella to protect it against the hot sun, but hey, we were so wrong, like so wrong. And who is causing the mess? We give you one chance to guess!
Oh, the horror, the horror. We are wondering how many companies in the metals trading market are going to go under imminently and whether even some of the futures systems are up to par. Most Futures exchanges set margins based on standard deviations and as you look underneath the hood, the systems tolerate easily 7% declines, but the copper market loss cascaded into nearly a 25% loss. We hope all were able to cover their margins but if history is a guide there is a torrent of blood on the streets. And why, you may ask? Because Trump changed his mind on the copper tariffs and anybody who bought thinking he would not do a TACO, was skewered and then boiled in a copper pot.

Brent hits $73.50/bbl! And up we go flying, the moon is the next stop! What’s going on? WW3, coup d’etat, tariffs, Russia not selling, China buying, shipping interdiction on a massive scale? It starts to sound overdone but CTAs are hungry our sources tell us. They loaded up on short term $80 strike call options. Meanwhile, on the tariff front, India got hit by Mr T with 25% tariff plus some mystery “PENALTY” for funding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by buying Russian oil and military equipment. At least Mr. T called them friends before he whacked them. You could feel the love and the respect…not. A survey of Indian sources couldn’t figure out what exactly this penalty entails… some think it could be the 100% secondary tariffs for buying Russian oil. The Indians are at the end of their tether, perplexed about Trump’s game plan. Once you’ve refined a product and mixed it all up, there’s no telling where it came from. That’s why we maintain that these restrictions are nonsensical! Maybe the world will learn the US is not a dependable partner but a whimsical wannabe overlord.

The market went manic! Strong buying strayed into this morning with Brent peaking at $73.18/bbl. What was driving it? Woah, anybody we spoke with provided a minor glimpse into the roaring market, but they were almost grasping for straws. Two recurring themes surfaced: India and Russia or both. Some pointed to the Nayara refinery and its software, shipping and financial sanctions troubles due to the European intrusion into India’s affairs. Even Microsoft got into the act cutting off services before getting spanked by the courts. Westerners thought sanctions would cut off oil into India, but our Indian sources were like: What? Who is saying that? A whiff of Western arrogance was evident, but the Indians were nonplussed.

The good vibes have truly returned to the market. $70 looked like a ceiling for a couple of weeks, as Brent struggled along with that hard cap, but today it decisively broke through! If breaking 70 was smashing through the glass ceiling, $71 was shooting for the stars. By the close, Brent had made it to $70.80/bbl and bust through to above $71 shortly after!

In the week ending 25 July 2025, exchange traded futures volumes declined w/w across all contracts and throughout the first three tenors, with only exception RBOB futures volumes that rose in the October and November contracts and Brent futures which remained relatively unchanged in the same tenors. The biggest fall occurred in September tenor of the Heating Oil contract, which fell 35.15% w/w. Meanwhile, for both Brent and WTI it was also the September contract that experienced the largest drop in volumes, 25.15% and 23.94% down w/w, respectively.

The $70s are back! We made it! And Brent was fighting tooth and nail to keep hold of the handle, struggling through to the close, which it reached at $70.19/bbl before climbing towards $70.50. As we rumble towards expiry, the prompt spread continued to decline to 68c and the M2/M3 spread did too, reaching 62c at 16:30 Singapore time. Some folks are confused about the strength, but equally they didn’t see the purchasing by China to fill up reserves. The extra release by the Gulf area was over matched by the incremental Chinese. It will become evident whether China continues sucking extra barrels next month as the official pricing to be released around the fifth of the month super spikes. We think it will slow down but for now the market is very constructive.

In the game of chicken, the Europeans backed down first! Although the trade deal agreed with the US is just another example of European economic self-harm, there is one advantage – less uncertainty! What had smashed the market in April and sent economic analysts into a right tizzy was the uncertainty over what Trump would do next and how much damage he’d do. Now the Europeans know with certainty they have been had and some countries and corporates like it. Weird! The cocktail of trade optimism mixed with Trump’s venomous Russia jibes had the market on the up, even piercing $70, before sliding back to reach the close at $69.68/bbl.

The EU capitulated on the Tariff Wars! Someone has to eat some TACO and this time was Europe. Ursula von der Leyen said about the deal, ‘it was the best we could get.’ Someone needs to fire her and find another negotiator. Francois Bayrou, the French PM put it best: it is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, united to affirm their values and defend their interests, resolves to submission.’ Submission it is. The new 15% tariffs agreed by the EU more than triple the existing 4.8% tariff system. You can use fancy words like the deal is asymmetric or just put it more plainly and say someone is going to indulge in a TACO fest. Somehow, the Germans and the Italians are happy with getting the raw end of a deal and only the French are making noise. From history, sadly, that’s all it amounts to, some whimpering noises but they have accepted the deal.

The Powell-Trump feud is getting ever more intense, as Trump accuses the Fed Chair of having added hundreds of millions more to the cost of Federal Reserve renovations… before Powell points out that’s from the construction of a separate building completed 5 years ago. We have to laugh, else we might just cry. The July FOMC is next week and there’s practically zero chance of a rate cut – maybe some with an eye on the top job will vote for a cut to curry favour. In the scheme of US spending, the Federal Reserve renovations are small fry, as the US Treasury has to roll over $7 trillion (!!) of debt this year alone.

The relief after the squeeze. The Murban futures to Dubai partials spread boomed to $1.16 yesterday, surging from 4c just on Monday. But you can only squeeze so hard before the release and today the spread collapsed back to only 40c, while the spread to Oman is back down to nearly 30c, from $1.10 yesterday!

Oil markets got hit! This time by no other than Mr Trump who likes low oil prices as you know. Brent swooned after having traded above the $69.50 mark. But the concern about more oil hitting the market brought prices down to around $68.50/bbl again. We keep on seeing this number again and again. Trump remembered he was elected on the promise to bring down oil prices and reportedly resumed Chevron’s permission to pump Venezuelan crude. Traders were seen sending texts back and forth about what it meant. More supply! Flat price immediately responded, dropping from $69.10 to $68.70 within moments – and then further down. Maybe he’s realised US refiners need heavy crude. The bluster just keeps unravelling as noise, more TACO salad anyone? Time to invest in Bose as demand for noise-cancelling headphones surges?

Hello, boys! We have another squeeze or if you want we can use some fancy terms like buying spree, short covering, physical requirements, refinery orders or whatever but the point is, there is trouble with the benchmarks again!
This time, the benchmark exhibiting funny behaviour (if you are not a buyer) is Murban. Not again! Yes, Murban but this time the pop is to the upside. Murban is surging by whatever measure. If you see the flat price behaviour…Boom, up $1.51/bbl since Friday. If you measure the spread relative to Brent, boom again, up $2.17/bbl in the same time frame. And relative to spicy Dubai another boom up $1.12/bbl since Friday.

The flat price was boring with Sep Brent trying desperately to pierce the $68.00/bbl to just bounce up again and again. In contrast, the window got messy and the Dated differential climbed 14c/bbl, after a brief respite yesterday when it held steady. Bids and offers were thrown around the window like frozen buns in a real food fight – with Midland setting the curve throughout. Chevron was there bartering its wares, offering two Midland cargoes, while PetroIneos offered one of its own. Exxon and Totsa returned to bid. Then Gunvor burst in to bid for Ekofisk, Forties and Brent, while Equinor offered Oseberg.
Mercuria and Phillips were bidding and offering Ekofisk, respectively. At least one bid or offer for all but one of the BFOETM grades! We only lacked a Troll to get the full set.