The Officials

2025 has been a big year for The Officials. It’s our first full calendar year of publication, having begun in June 2024 and we’ve added a huge amount of value to our offering. Another 500+ twice daily reports and price assessments for the Asian and European closes, including the addition of Dated Brent and physical differential assessments in IE week. The Liquidity Report launched in February and we’ve published 46 issues to date, offering transparency into trading volumes. We built on this foundation to produce the Quarterly Volumes Review as well – keep an eye out for the Q4 Review in coming months! In October, the Officials Brent Index launched as a live trading instrument on the Jakarta Futures Exchange. And of course, the Peering Eye was a late popular addition to our publications, which provides visibility into key shipping hubs and ports. More to come in 2026!

2025 was the year when geopolitics lost its impact on flat price. At the start and through the middle of the year political mess mattered and affected flat price up and down. By the end of the year, not so much and the mood was decisively bearish no matter who was bombing who. We continue to tell you and share the market sentiment. At the moment, finding a bullish analyst is like finding a needle in a haystack.

There is certainly no fraternal or sororal bullying going on. The UAE’s sudden decision to withdraw from its military involvement in Yemen following the Saudis’ port bombing this morning is entirely ‘voluntary’… Of course, this has nothing to do with the somewhat coincidental timing. The UAE Ministry of Defence’s statement also referred to “brotherly” Yemen as a sibling it wants to protect, praising the work of “Emirati sons” in the Arab Coalition. It’s rather more heated than any family argument we’ve ever had the misfortune to witness…

In the week ending 26 December 2025, exchange traded futures volumes showed significant declines w/w across instruments in the first three tenors, as trading slowed due to Christmas. Brent showed significant declines in the front month (-59.49%) and the third month (-41.84%).

No Christmas truce, sadly, but Russia and Ukraine have reportedly agreed a localised ceasefire around the Zaporizhzhia power plant to allow necessary repairs. The Kremlin said it expected a phone call between Putin and Trump soon after the meeting, but doesn’t expect one with Zelenskyy for now! It’s clear who’s really in control… Another ‘positive’ phone call isn’t saving many lives on the battlefield.

The market last week had priced a ‘successful’ meeting between the Donald and Zelensky and the oil price tanked. Anybody sensible that read the Ukrainian counter proposal to the original proposal would have concluded that the Russian and Ukrainian positions are incompatible. But the market thought otherwise. Dumb market we say.
The meeting was predictably a waste of time and the war carries on and the price surged again! Even if T and Z agree 90% on the 20 points plan, there’s one very important absentee – Putin! It’s very well agreeing terms with your supporters and financers, but it’s the enemy you’ve really got to convince…

The ‘Peace President’ announced yet more bombing. This time it’s not Venezuela that’s getting the pointy end of his wrath, but Nigeria. Donnie said he targeted “ISIS terrorist scum in Northwestern Nigeria” and yet the oil market hardly reacted. Despite Nigeria producing almost 1.5 mil b/d against Venezuela’s 930 kb/d (per OPEC secondary sources), flat price hasn’t really moved since the close on Wednesday and reached the Asian close at $62.20/bbl. These days, the market wants concrete proof that a policy or event will follow through and have a material impact, so it’s not reacting just yet…

As expected, the market was very quiet today and the European market feels sleepy, keen to get on with stuffing its face with turkey and prices dropped in the European morning, having climbed gradually through the Asian session. Backwardation is back in fashion, though, as all Brent futures spreads through 2026 are either backwardated or flat, recovering after last week’s dip where we saw all but the 2 most prompt spreads slip into contango. Today flat price traded in a tight range around the mid-$62 point, possibly as some traders rushed to get final Christmas gifts sorted

The narrative is changing! The super glut mania is fading as market participants fail to see evidence of the deluge of excess supply flooding the market. OPEC doesn’t have the spare capacity to open the taps much more, as they’ve essentially all been doing as they please for a long time, anyway. Numerous commentators and analysts are now expecting hefty upward revisions to demand and paring back of supply estimates. Of course, much hinges on China continuing to buy for its strategic purposes.

We had a brief stint below the $62 land in Brent flat price, but just after 16:00 GMT the market started moving north again to reach the close at $62.10/bbl. Things are comfy there. The prompt spread moved down in tandem, far below its 54c peak to just 44c, but by the close, it had almost offset any losses and was trading at 50c.

In the week ending 19 December 2025, exchange traded futures volumes showed mixed gains w/w across instruments in the first three tenors. Brent showed moderate gains in the front month, but saw significant increases in March and April contracts which were up by 26.75% and 17.26% respectively.

It “would be smart” for Maduro to leave power, that’s what Trump said overnight. The man is unhinged, but then again, who had piracy in the Caribbean on their 2025 bingo card? “Price-wise, very little of it was factored in two weeks ago,” said a source regarding recent escalations in Venezuela, adding that “this seems like it will become a more nagging issue than people initially expected.” But Trump went further on the oil he stole. “Maybe we’ll sell it, maybe we’ll keep it, maybe we’ll use it in the strategic reserve,” he said regarding the seized oil. “We’re keeping the ships also.” Pure piracy

The market hadn’t moved since Wednesday, but it decided to go up today, reaching a peak of $62.16/bbl, +2.7% on the day! And the prompt spread climbed all the way to 50c – on Friday morning we were down at 28c! We just hope you weren’t one of those shorts! As of December 16, positioning of non-commercial accounts in Brent futures and options reached a record high short! Some snap back becomes almost inevitable when positioning becomes so concentrated.

Pirates in the Caribbean episode 2 arrived over the weekend folks – we hope you didn’t miss it, flat price certainly didn’t and went up over two percent. Brent was catapulted north of $61.50 again. The US decided to seize not only one, but two more tankers. The first one, on Saturday, was the Panama-flagged, but Chinese-owned, Centuries (IMO: 9206310), a VLCC carrying 1.8 mill bbls of Venezuelan crude oil bound for China.