The Officials

The market didn’t react much on the news of the Ukrainian attack in the Mediterranean, but it began to climb in the late London morning, even managing to recover the $60 handle heading into the weekend. It was an upwards boogie into the mid-afternoon and it just about managed to cling on to $60.24/bbl at the close.

The Ukrainians are not shy about blowing dark fleet vessels wherever they are and regardless of the environmental consequences. A ship was attacked by drones near Libya, leading to a fire, but the vessel was unladen. The Qendil (IMO: 9310525) wasn’t sunk but is damaged. And of course, the price did not react 🤣.

Someone keeps adding to the Christmas List. Or perhaps the Naughty List. The EU has added another 41 ships to its rapidly growing fleet of undesirable vessels. If you’re a keen ship tracker, remember to take the reported position of these ships with a healthy serving of scepticism, given their proclivity for evading AIS tracking.

Well, that didn’t last long… Exit Auchincloss and enter O’Neill, the fourth CEO in six years. The famed ‘fundamental reset’ has fundamentally failed as Murray Auchincloss is binned by BP after less than 2 years as CEO. He left in a hurry like some of his scandal-stained predecessors. In the interim, he is being replaced by Carol Howle, BP head of trading. Meg O’Neill will take over in April next year. O’Neill was an Exxon executive and, most recently, ran Woodside Energy.

Now $60 looks like a ceiling. Brent battled to get hold of the handle throughout today’s session, with short-lived success in the late London morning following the rumours of further US sanctions on Russia. But that didn’t last and a gradual grind through the afternoon had the price back down to $59.87/bbl by the European close.

Things are really on edge. Trump is bristling and squaring up against Maduro, designating his regime a “FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANISATION” and announcing a “blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers. The oil price didn’t like that and jumped back up to over $59 at the Asian open this morning, continuing to climb gradually to hit $59.63/bbl by the close. Many market sources, however, told The Officials they’re expecting little impact in the end, wondering how on earth the US hopes to enforce the blockade.

A bloodbath! Brent at its lowest since February 2021, no Christmas truce on the cards, and contango is creeping… Putin said he’ll only agree to a pause in the fighting for Christmas if they reach a deal – and of course he’s being cagey, wanting to avoid a ceasefire that allows Ukraine to better prepare for war again. Meanwhile, European leaders seem to be changing their tune towards more pro-peace rhetoric. Even Merz said he feels closer to a ceasefire than at any time in the previous 4 years.

In the week ending 12 December 2025, exchange traded futures volumes showed mixed gains w/w across instruments in the first three tenors. Brent, WTI and Gasoil all posted strong gains with the April contracts standing out, as WTI saw a 40% elevation in volumes alongside Brents 34.5% increase. But Heating oil and RBOB both saw decreases across the strip

A day of pain as whacking the flat price pinata gets out of hand! After days of relentless selling, Brent is finally under the key $60/bbl support. For the past 7 sessions, only one has closed higher than the previous close. There’s been a strong narrative of ample if not gigantic levels of floating storage following a raft of sanctions by the US and Europe. While this would normally result in the buyers being stressed, the key buyer for sanctioned barrels – China – saw the opportunity to hold back and pick up really cheap and distressed cargoes. This in turn put the pressure on Middle Eastern barrels who then didn’t have a home.

Sub-$61! The lowest point since May is within touching distance! If you zoom out on the Brent flat price chart, you’ll spot the period of sideways movement from 21 November until 8 December but, in the last week of trading, we’ve been moving steadily downwards. Even so, the prompt structure recovered from its 19c low on Friday afternoon to reach today’s European close at 27c. But the market undeniably lacks conviction. “Everyone has been flip flopping both ways” said a trader

It’s still very much a one-man-show in Dubai, as Glencore continues as the sole significant buyside presence, juggling lifting offers and placing its own bids. Enough to get another couple of convergences – today both Upper Zakum from Equinor and Exxon. It’s still Glencore alone to have collected cargoes this month so far, having accumulated 14 convergences so far, of which all but one have been Upper Zakums – the other was an Al Shaheen. As well as declaring their convergences today, Exxon and Equinor are the dominant sellers, having nominated 4 cargoes each. Hengli is just one behind, while Shell has sold one and Phillips just the one.

While Trump is trying to drill in Alaska, flat price is trying to drill through the $61 floor. But it’s proving resilient so far, as Brent keeps clinging on. It was the same old cast in the North Sea window, as Totsa, Trafi and Glencore came back to bid Midland again.